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[updated with a link, and a quote, about ClimateGate]

… we would probably be at the moment of the peripeteia-–the reversal of fortune for the hero-protagonist:

According to Aristotle, this should be an event that occurs contrary to the audience’s expectations and that is therefore surprising, but that nonetheless appears as a necessary outcome of the preceding actions.

Is that true about ClimateGate?

a scandal that has done what many slide shows and public-service ads could not: focus public attention on the science of a warming planet.

Except now, much of that attention is focused on the science’s flaws. Leaked just before international climate talks begin in Copenhagen — the culmination of years of work by scientists to raise alarms about greenhouse-gas emissions — the e-mails have cast those scientists in a political light …

In an effort to control what the public hears, did prominent scientists who link climate change to human behavior try to squelch a back-and-forth that is central to the scientific method? Is the science of global warming messier than they have admitted? [emphasis added]

Well, so huge is the scandal, suggests Steven Hayward, that he anticipates the collapse of Kyoto-Copenhagen [emphasis added]:

Climate alarmists and their media cheerleaders are fond of warning about “tipping points” to disaster, but ironically this episode may represent a tipping point against the alarmists. The biggest hazard to serious climate science all along was not so much contrarian arguments from skeptics, but rather the damage that the hyperbole of the environmental community would inflict on their own cause.

Climate change is a genuine phenomenon, and there is a nontrivial risk of major consequences in the future. Yet the hysteria of the global warming campaigners and their monomaniacal advocacy of absurdly expensive curbs on fossil fuel use have led to a political dead end that will become more apparent with the imminent collapse of the Kyoto-Copenhagen process.

Meanwhile, the ClimateGate story is strictly an “undernews¹ phenomenon—all over the blogosphere and all over the British press (which asserts that “public confidence in the science on man-made global warming has been shattered by leaked e-mails”), but it has been a non-story and a non-event in the MSM.

That doesn’t mean, however, that it’s not a developing story, because indeed it is.

At the Freakonomics blog, Steven Stephen Dubner describes the state of play on ClimateGate:

[I]t’s become strikingly clear that one’s view of the issue is deeply colored by his or her incoming biases. No surprise there, but still, the demarcation is stark. …

Those who feel that global warming is the most pressing issue of our era, a potential catastrophe that needs to be addressed by governments around the world as soon as possible, generally argue that ClimateGate is a tempest in a teapot — little more than the sort of academic infighting and nasty language you’d find by raiding any academic’s hard drive; …

The other side, meanwhile, …feels that the C.R.U. material proves what they’ve been arguing all along: that the threat of global warming lies somewhere between exaggeration and hoax; that it is a conventional wisdom produced by an alarmist cabal of climate scientists …

But awareness was growing, Dubner wrote yesterday:

In just the past few days, there has been a ton of coverage. Still, they complain that the major American TV networks are ignoring the story, leaving it to Jon Stewart to break the news.

And indeed the story is breaking through to the MSM, according to NewsBusters.

WaPo Puts ClimateGate at the Top of Page One

NBC Nightly News Takes Up ClimateGate, But Frets It Could ‘Delay Taking Action’

But the most interesting players are attracting only a minimum of attention for their actions during this developing story.

Obama Ignores ‘Climate-Gate‘ in Revising Copenhagen Plans

Video: Climategate emails cancel Al Gore’s appearance at Climate Summit

Stay tuned, as they say.

———

¹ I’m using the term in the sense that Mickey Kaus used it here:

[T]here’s a second way to divide the electorate that asks how the voters inform themselves. Do they rely on the traditional Mainstream Media (MSM), or do they get their political information from the Web, from cable news, from the tabloids, etc. This division may have once seemed unimportant, but it doesn’t anymore–its seriousness is suggested by the MSM’s impressive resistance to stories bubbling up from the blogs and the tabs that don’t meet MSM standards (putting aside whether you regard those standards as high or merely idiosyncratic). “Rielle Hunter”–the woman whom the National Enquirer alleges was John Edwards’ mistress–was the top-searched name on the MSN site at one point Thursday, I’m told. Meanwhile, in the traditional mainstream press, ‘Rielle Hunter” was mentioned only … well, zero times. Of the two ways to divide the electorate, the second is arguably more important. After all, even those who don’t follow politics, will eventually inform themselves before the election.** But if the MSM/Web barrier remains as robust as it’s been, those who inform themselves from the MSM will find out something different, when they finally tune in, than those who go to the Web and learn both the news and what might be called the “undernews.” ***

But I note that the late William Safire was using the term back in 1997:

”Have you noticed how little news is coming out of Washington these days?” a reporter asked.

On the surface, that’s so. But like the sound unheard by human ear or the sight unseen by human eye, momentous events are taking place not yet reportable. Court-suppressed information, destined to be tomorrow’s headlines, is today’s ”undernews.”

For Safire, “undernews” was not yet reportable because it was rumor, gossip, unconfirmed, or otherwise sketchy.

Today, “undernews” is the juicy stuff, and what the MSM “reports” is either useless, because it is spin, or it is undervalued because, compared to the stuff on cable and the undernews, it is boring (speaking from the point of view of storytelling, that is).

print the legend

Among the Daily Beast’s 10 Films You Should Have Seen in 2009 is My One and Only. Embedded in the Beast’s mini-review is something for filmmakers, and indeed for all storytellers, to think about:

Despite some very good reviews, audiences ignored the film as soon as they heard it was based on incidents in the early life of actor George Hamilton. Viewers indifferent to the growing pains of the well-tanned movie star missed a deliciously impudent comedy, with a vivid script by Charlie Peters that caught the contradictions of a society in transition. [emphasis added]

If you have a good story based on a less-than-heroic real-life individual (someone who already has a reputation or an image in the public mind), find a way to call it—or embroider it into—fiction.

Audiences are far more forgiving of fantasy than of real life.

the exhausting future

Jeff Jarvis rushes to embrace what’s coming down the pike for media producers [emphasis added]:

Media can’t expect us to go to it all the time. Media has to come to us. Media must insinuate itself into our streams.

Yeah. Whatever. Why this tiresome use of the imperative, though, this missionary zeal?

And this notion of a relentless, endless confrontation between the human being and media—who on earth wants that?

transported

fun with vocabulary

From the many great pieces about ClimateGate, this stands out [emphasis added]:

This wouldn’t be such a big deal if other e-mails didn’t show even worse malfeasance. “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e., from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith to hide the decline [of temperatures],” one said. To most people with normal IQs, the words “trick” and “hide” in the same sentence would suggest manipulation of data. But the brainiacs at Hadley claim that these are just standard colloquialism that scientists use to describe completely innocent operations.

Really? Then how do they explain this 2005 e-mail by Phil Jones, the director of the center, to the aforementioned Mike. “The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the U.K., I think I’ll delete the file rather than send to anyone… We also have a data protection act, which I will hide behind.” The “two MMs” refers to Canadian researchers Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick. And–lo and behold–when one of them asked Jones for his data, what did he do? He hid behind the data protection act. But no, there is nothing premeditated here!

The plot, as they say, thickens.

Charles Dickens’s manuscript of The Christmas Carol is now on exhibit at the Morgan Library here in NYC:

First to behold the results was Rob Matthews, 35, an artist from Philadelphia.

“I’m not sure how the printers made this out,’’ Mr. Matthews said, squinting. “This is notoriously bad penmanship.’’

the backlash queen

And the winner is … Sarah Palin:

HarperCollins spokeswoman Tina Andreadis said Tuesday that just two weeks after publication, Sarah Palin’s memoir has sold 1 million copies. The print run for “Going Rogue” has been increased again, to 2.8 million copies. The original printing was 1.5 million, then moved up to 2.5 million. [emphasis added]

“Going Rogue” joins a select club of million-selling political memoirs that includes Barack Obama’s “The Audacity of Hope,” Hillary Rodham Clinton’s “Living History” and Bill Clinton’s “My Life.”

I wrote about the power of backlashes here and here.

Bloggers who will go nameless here have been going on and on about all of the “lies” in Palin’s book.  But one eyewitness to events confirms Palin’s side of the WardrobeGate story—Lisa A. Kline, the wardrobe consultant who engineered Sarah from Alaska into a chic vice-presidential candidate:

It was a “trumped up controversy,” [Palin] writes [in her book]. “I never asked the New York stylists to purchase clothes, many of the items were never worn, many others were intended for the use of other people, and in the end the wardrobe items were all returned. It certainly wasn’t true that I or my family had been on any kind of ‘big-time shopping trips.’ ”

All true, Ms. Kline said this week. Her reticence so far, she said, was out of respect to a client. But now that Ms. Palin herself is discussing her unidentified “New York stylist,” Ms. Kline would like to clarify a few details, which she did first in an interview for the campaign biography “Sarah From Alaska” by Scott Conroy and Shushannah Walshe, published this month.

Read all about it here in my hometown paper, the New York Times.

From the ClimateGate files:

That disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers estimated to take place in the year 2035?

Try 2350!

Most people following the climate change debate are aware that many sources claim that the Himalayan glaciers are disappearing “rapidly” — in fact, that they may disappear by 2035, a mere 25 years from now.

Today, in a guest post at Dr. Roger Pielke Sr.’s blog, Dr. Madhav Khandekar discusses this bit of folk science (Dr. Pielke is also the subject of an upcoming PJM interview).:

[...]

According to Prof Graham Cogley (Trent University, Ontario), a short article on the future of glaciers by a Russian scientist (Kotlyakov, V.M., 1996, The future of glaciers under the expected climate warming, 61-66, in Kotlyakov, V.M., ed., 1996, Variations of Snow and Ice in the Past and at Present on a Global and Regional Scale, Technical Documents in Hydrology, 1. UNESCO, Paris (IHP-IV Project H-4.1). 78p estimates 2350 as the year for disappearance of glaciers, but the IPCC authors misread 2350 as 2035 in the Official IPCC documents, WGII 2007 p. 493!

For the record, I’m not a “warmist” or a “denialist.” Or a conspiracist or a partisan, either.

John Tierney has more on the ClimateGate mess here. Upshot:

Contempt for critics is evident over and over again in the hacked e-mail messages, as if the scientists were a priesthood protecting the temple from barbarians. Yes, some of the skeptics have political agendas, but so do some of the scientists. Sure, the skeptics can be cranks and pests, but they have identified genuine problems in the historical reconstructions of climate, as in the debate they inspired about the “hockey stick” graph of temperatures over the past millennium.

It is not unreasonable to give outsiders a look at the historical readings and the adjustments made by experts like Harry. How exactly were the readings converted into what the English scientists describe as “quality controlled and homogenised” data?

Trying to prevent skeptics from seeing the raw data was always a questionable strategy, scientifically. Now it looks like dubious public relations, too.

they contain multitudes

Cool vid:

Mark Twain was born on this day in 1835. In his honor, I reprint some of his advice for writers:

On Revising

  • You need not expect to get your book right the first time. Go to work and revamp or rewrite it. God only exhibits his thunder and lightning at intervals, and so they always command attention. These are God’s adjectives. You thunder and lightning too much; the reader ceases to get under the bed, by and by.
    (Letter to Orion Clemens, March 1878)

On Verbosity
I notice that you use plain, simple language, short words and brief sentences. That is the way to write English–it is the modern way and the best way. Stick to it; don’t let fluff and flowers and verbosity creep in. When you catch an adjective, kill it. No, I don’t mean utterly, but kill most of them–then the rest will be valuable. They weaken when they are close together. They give strength when they are wide apart. An adjective habit, or a wordy, diffuse, flowery habit, once fastened upon a person, is as hard to get rid of as any other vice.”
(Letter to D. W. Bowser, March 1880)

On Adjectives
As to the Adjective: when in doubt, strike it out.
(Pudd’nhead Wilson, 1894)

Got that? Now, get to work.

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